Changes in the northeastern reaches of Lake Powell are documented in this series of natural-color images taken by the Landsat series of satellites between 1999 and 2021. The end of January elevation and storage of Lake Powell were 3,523.45 feet (177 feet from full pool) and 5.45 million acre-feet (maf) (23 percent of live capacity), respectively. Get the most up to date information on Lake Powell's water levels and the status of launch ramps from the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and more with the links and pages below. In water year 2021 unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell was 3.50 maf (36 percent of average), the second driest year on record above 2002. The forecast for water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell, issued on January 5, 2023, by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, projects that the most probable (median) unregulated inflow volume in water year 2023 will be 9.5 maf (99 percent of average). Prepared by Ashley Nielson NOAA, National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Salt Lake City, Utah www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Contents A 59% flow into Powell translates to about 3.8 million acre-feet. According to the Bureau of Reclamation's website (on March 22, 2022), Lake Click for . Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. This was the lowest water levels have been since the lake was first constructed in the 1930s. Its better than last year, but well just have to see what the next two to four weeks holds for precipitation.. These long-term projections help water managers plan for future shortages, which are increasingly likely in the Colorado River Basin, in part because of warmer temperatures brought on by global climate change. Feet above sea level Change - Feet difference over previous . (2019-2021) AND my own personal prediction of 2022 based on p. Shortages have been implemented by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in areas like Arizona as water levels in the reservoir have consistently dropped for the past 10 years. Based on the current forecast of 10.44 maf unregulated inflow for water year 2023, the February 24-Month Study projects Lake Powell elevation will end water year 2023 near 3555.45 feet with approximately 7.47 maf in storage (32 percent of capacity). The declines were first apparent in the side canyons feeding the reservoir which thinned and then shortened. Under system normal conditions, fluctuations for regulation are typically short lived and generally balance out over the hour with minimal or no noticeable impacts on downstream river flow conditions. For five years after 2012, snow- and rainfall totals were generally low, as the region suffered through a persistent, long-term drought. Lake Powell Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2022 Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. Correction: This article has been corrected to indicate that Lake Powell began filling 59 years ago, not 60 years, as the original article stated. LAKE POWELL, Utah Lake Powell water levels continue to drop, and a new report released by the Bureau of Reclamation projects the possibility America's . The May report, released last week, is the final runoff prediction for the season. google_color_url = "426C95"; google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; water-data.com Lake Powell Water Database. Lake Powell is so low that it is nearing a dead pool, in which water levels aren't high enough to deliver water downstream. This article contains new, firsthand information uncovered by its reporter(s). google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; Jian Wang of Utahs Center for Colorado River Studies says that means the projections may be too optimistic. Federal and state water managers have watched the water level in Lake Powell closely this year. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. But in a statement, she said, The Upper Basin States are working collaboratively with the Bureau of Reclamation to draft a 2022 Drought Response Operations Plan outlining potential releases from Upper Basin reservoirs in an effort to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. Wang suggests updating the reference period more frequently or using the last 20 years as the baseline. Mitchell declined to discuss the pending drought operations plan. google_ad_type = "text_image"; More by Chris Outcalt, Got a story tip? Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. As air warms over time, less precipitation makes it to the reservoirs due to evaporation. The forecast estimated that the amount of water that will flow into Lake Powell this spring and summer will be about 59% of average, based on 30 years of data from 1991 to 2020. Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section). Glen Canyon Dam currently maintains 30 mw (approximately 800 cfs) of generation capacity in reserve in order to respond to a system emergency even when generation rates are already high. Using the approach described in the immediately preceding paragraph, the August 2022 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2023, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,525 feet. The northwestern side branch of Lake Powell remained cut off from the rest of the reservoir. Fish & Wildlife Service Endangered Species Success Stories. @) .=] j Bvq2 4=B4[YCO@p/e`5[ #("A3?M|Cd(Jje(B_il:.\7m=.{CZ&&q5O}NOB6jGptUEN1Dh'6dW30oLqmt1W#F/qy<5aJ5 LuQmB(JD'4z`9q#v k[ T The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. Late last fall WAPA, which operates the electric grid and distributes the power to utilities, raised rates 30% to cover reductions in power revenue. By Leia Larsen. Together with the release of more water into Lake Powell from an upstream dam, the decision will keep the lake at a level at which it can continue generating hydropower for the next 12 months. The Colorado River flows in from the east around Mille Crag Bend and is swallowed by the lake. Projections of end of water year 2023 elevation using the February minimum and January maximum inflow forecast results are 3,544.04 feet and 3,582.24 feet, respectively. These instantaneous release adjustments stabilize the electrical generation and transmission system and translate to a range of about 1,300 cfs above or below the hourly scheduled release rate. google_color_url = "426C95"; The forecast isnt great, said Kyle Whitaker, Colorado River Manager for the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District, one of the largest diverters of water in the headwaters region of the river. 159 0 obj <> endobj swE{,,;o0U|+/ :u7j@;pGh00gr\j30sAD+ ON 9 The model is based on weather conditions over a thirty-year span. Another 480 kaf will be left in Lake Powell by reducing Glen Canyon Dams annual release volume from 7.48 maf to 7.0 maf, as outlined in the 2007 Interim Guidelines that control operations of Glen Canyon Dam and Hoover Dam. google_color_text = "000000"; "These reservoirs are huge," Lund said. (For comparison, the 1991-2020 total water year average is 9.60 maf.) Her work has appeared nationally on NPR and been featured on Science Friday. Sunday, February 26, 2023 12:00:00 AM Level is 178.87 feet According to Jay Lund, vice director for the Center for Watershed Sciences and a professor at the University of California, the long-term average use in the lower Colorado River Basin exceeds the long-term flow of water, meaning the only solution is to "substantially reduce water use" in the basin. As of September 20, 2021, the water elevation at Glen Canyon Dam was 3,546.93 feet, more than 153 feet below "full pool" (elevation 3,700 feet). Last week, the Bureau of Reclamation announced extraordinary action to keep the water level at Powell from dropping too low, which could threaten hydropower production at Powells Glen Canyon Dam. Committee on the Scientific Bases of Colorado River Basin Water Management, National Research Council. Across most of the streams and rivers of the Upper Basin, forecasted runoff ranges from very poor (50% of average) to mediocre (80% of average).. Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. hbbd``b`$WX)! Lake Powell is at low for water year and down 9.26 feet from the high. He also was an associate editor at 5280 and a reporter for the Vail Daily. n$L{Z. Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use The Colorado Sun is a journalist-owned, award-winning news outlet based in Denver that strives to cover all of Colorado so that our state our community can better understand itself. The August 2022 24-Month Study modeled 2023 and 2024 operations at Lakes Powell and Mead as if the 0.480 maf had been delivered to Lake Mead for operating tier/condition purposes both for the U.S. Lower Basin and for Mexico. monthly forecasts become more accurate. In the image acquired on May 1, 2004, the reservoirs northwestern branch is isolated from the main reservoir; the shallow water upstream could not crest raised areas in the lakebed. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powells water levels. Few expected to ever see this drop in hydropower production, let alone consider what to do if Glen Canyon were to cease electricity production entirely. The Glen Canyon Dam annual release has initially been set to 7.00 maf, and in April 2023 Reclamation will evaluate hydrologic conditions to determine if balancing releases may be appropriate under the conditions established in the 2007 Interim Guidelines; Balancing releases will be limited (with a minimum of 7.00 maf) to protect Lake Powell from declining below elevation 3,525 feet at the end of December 2023; Balancing releases will take into account operational neutrality of the 0.480 maf that was retained in Lake Powell under the. Telling stories that matter in a dynamic, evolving state. As a news piece, this article cites verifiable, third-party sources which have all been thoroughly fact-checked and deemed credible by the Newsroom in accordance with the Civil Constitution. As the forecast season progresses, Antelope Point Marina on Feb. 3, 2022, in the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area near Page. 0.523 maf in Lake Powell from December 2022 through April 2023. Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window), Wind affected on the west and south facing aspects of the Gore Range seen on, April 7, 2022, near Vail. Graphical view of Lake Powell water data. google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; Part of the Glen Canyon Conservancy Family, Utah D.O.T Charles Hall Ferry for UT Route 276. //2006-10-04: news Last July, to protect the 3,525 buffer zone, Reclamation ordered emergency water releases from three reservoirs in the Upper Colorado River Basin. We maintain a strict editorial firewall between our funders and our journalism. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. google_ad_height = 600; average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. Lake Powell, Printable Version Climate change also plays a part. By May 1, the spring-summer runoff outcomes are pretty well locked in, which means theres virtually no escape from a third poor runoff year in a row, Jeff Lukas, an independent water and climate researcher based in Lafayette, said in an email. On Tuesday, the lake fell below 3,525 feet above sea level, a key target elevation that water managers have been trying to keep Powell above because it provides a buffer from the minimum level at which Glen Canyon Dam can generate power. This includes directly interviewing sources and research / analysis of primary source documents. Lake Mead's water levels . Melissa joined KNAU's team in 2015 to report on science, health, and the environment. google_ad_width = 160; 2022, a day after Southern California delared a water . The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . But it is concerning. google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; To view the most current reservoir elevation projections, click on: Lake Powell Elevation Projections. endstream endobj startxref The Bureau of Reclamation's most recent projections show Lake Mead dropping to 1,033.4 feet in elevation by the end of 2023, about 14 feet lower than the reservoir's current level. It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert . The unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell during January was 361 thousand acre-feet (kaf) (107 percent of average). We are 37% through the Water Year. Its not a hypothetical situation anymore.. His freelance and last updated 5:24 PM, Sep 24, 2021. CNN's Bill Weir has more. Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 11, 2023 There are currently 1,757,155,460,140 gallons of water in Lake Powell! Hourly releases during February 2023 will fluctuate from a low of approximately 5,797 cfs during the early morning hours to a high of 10,091 cfs during the afternoon and evening hours. google_ad_height = 600; The release volume from Glen Canyon Dam in January was 500 kaf. This is the big warning bell.. In the latter half of the decade, the drought eased somewhat. The amount of water predicted to flow into Lake Powell this year is down slightly from the previous month, according to the May report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. SW Satellite Weather Under a Drought Contingency Plan adopted in 2019, approximately 500 thousand acre-feet (kaf) of water will come from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located approximately 455 river miles upstream of Lake Powell. 0 On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. (Due to the angle of sunlight, this image may cause an optical illusion known as relief inversion.). (2007). We have to take a strong look at what we will do in the unlikely event that Lake Powell stops producing hydropower, said WAPAs Meiman. The unregulated inflow during the 2000-2022 period has ranged from a low of 2.64 maf (28 percent of average) in water year 2002 to a high of 15.97 maf (166 percent of average) in water year 2011. Dry conditions and falling water levels were unmistakable in the image from April 13, 2003. An initiative of the Center for Environmental Journalism at the University of Colorado Boulder. Although developing snowpack in the area is "fairly good" and might stave off dead pool in Lake Powell for another year or so, according to Lund, the solution lies with people conserving water. In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. "This is probably the largest reservoir system in the country in terms of storage. Both Moser and Lukas said that dry soil moisture conditions across the Colorado River Basin, which can sponge off valuable runoff before the water makes it into rivers and streams, wont be quite as bad as last year but will still be a negative factor. Upper Colorado Region Water Operations: Current Status: Lake Powell, Spring Snow Brings Moisture to Colorado Front Range, NASA Goddard Space Reclamation will also ensure all appropriate consultation with Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico, other federal agencies, water users and non-governmental organizations with respect to implementation of these monthly and annual operations. "I would be reluctant to limit it to years just since 2000, because I think there is some value in acknowledging the variability that goes on in our basin," he says. WEco is funded by multiple donors. hVmO0+_'"Bi?H!R`Mkwj3#tq@x k8,Q\yDIU>H View our Current Membership Thank You Gifts, KNAU News Talk - Arizona Public Radio | google_color_text = "000000"; She reported that, as of March 16, 2022, Lake Powell was at an elevation of 3,524.83 feet (ft.) with storage of 5.916 million acre-feet (maf) or 24 percent of capacity. "Its always good to plan for the worst, right? A century of river flow records combined with an additional four to five centuries of tree-ring data show that the droughts over the past two decades were not unusual; longer and more severe droughts are a regular part of the climate variability in that part of the continent. The Colorado River flows from the Rocky Mountains in Colorado through the southwestern United States. 8_9dyB`n`` +30|@,6a # Lake Powell is now at a historic low. The most probable inflow scenario reflects a median hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 50 percent of the time. Back then, Hannegan said, We made an assumption that our WAPA (Western Area Power Administration) allocation would be firm, reliable and always there. But the declining water already has drained some of the fun, he said. KNAUs Melissa Sevigny reports. In January, following the wet December Moser noted, the NOAA forecast called for 98% of the 30-year average to reach Powell. Utahs Flaming Gorge, Colorados Blue Mesa and New Mexicos Navajo. Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. Lake Powell water level at Wahweap Marina in September 2021 | Photo by Bureau of Reclamation, St. George News . An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. 04:18 . As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. The modeling approach for WY 2023 will apply to 2024. The Water Desk launched in April 2019 with support from the Walton Family Foundation. The bureau, in consultation with tribal nations and the seven Colorado River Basin states, decided to keep nearly 500,000 acre-feet of water in Lake Powell that had originally been planned to be released to the Lower Basin states of Nevada, Arizona and California this year. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. google_ad_type = "text_image"; While the lake was significantly higher in 2011 and 2012 than in 2005, a careful comparison of the side canyons reveals that the level was still not back to 1999 levels, when the lake was near full capacity. Fresh Water News is an independent, nonpartisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. Official Glen Canyon National Recreation Area Changing Lake Levels Info. Because the 2022 operations were designed to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell, Reclamation will implement Lower Elevation Balancing Tier operations in a way that continues to protect these critical elevations, or preserves the benefits of the 2022 operations to protect Lake Powell, in water year 2023. This level is actually .02 feet . Lukas noted that the dry soil conditions are factored into the NOAA runoff predictions from the get-go so there shouldnt necessarily be any big surprises with that particular variable. A Colorado River flows drop and tensions rise, water interests struggle Can the Ancient Humpback Chub Hang On in Todays Grand Canyon? According to Reclamation, there is a 27% chance that Powell will still stop generating electricity completely over the next four years. The drop in the power forecast comes as Upper Colorado River Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming prepare to finalize a new drought operations plan for the giant river system. Credit: Alex Hager. :pNB/gb2D0p6Ecb :qD_q7wE42TOOSW:Oa^(-]p7y|iZ.8uq:}1y3bJ]!G ) ytRdJp2 +[|}QpEU}V'k{yeKud"xl_-x lJ!UZ`,n!\3{dcb Water Summary Today is day 136 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. Since the beginning of water year 2000, total Colorado Basin storage has experienced year to year increases and decreases in response to wet and dry hydrology, ranging from a high of 94 percent of capacity at the beginning of 2000 to the now current level of 33 percent of capacity at the beginning of water year 2023. Under the current most probable forecast, the total water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell is projected to be 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. For additional information, the news release can be found here: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294. We need to get ourselves prepared," he says. Now, though, we know that its not firm, its not reliable, and its coming at a much higher cost.. 04:12 - Source: CNN Gas Prices on Lake Note that projections of elevation and storage for water year 2023 have significant uncertainty at this point in the season. View CFS Last 14 Measurements Lake Powell is down -1.03 feet over these measurements Averages for February 27th Last 10 February 27th's data records google_ad_width = 160; If Glen Canyon Dam ceases to operate, we are going to have to replace that power somewhere else and it will have a bigger carbon footprint, said Bryan Hannegan, CEO of Holy Cross Energy, which buys Lake Powells hydropower to serve customers in Western Colorado. The water level in Lake Powell was at a record low when rain and snow began to fall across the Colorado River Basin in October, soaking dry soils ahead of the winter season. In addition to the February 2023 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Drought Response Operational Agreement (DROA)), Reclamation has conducted model runs in February to determine a possible range of reservoir elevations. water-data.com LakePowell Water Database . By Anna Skinner On 1/18/23 at 4:42 PM EST. Even in low emission climate scenarios (forecasts that are based on the assumption that future carbon dioxide emissions will increase relatively slowly), models predict precipitation may decline by 20-25 percent over most of California, southern Nevada, and Arizona by the end of this century. Needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot accessibity about. The final runoff prediction for the Vail Daily January, following the wet December Moser,. 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